LME WEEK-Copper is top bet for base metals in 2024 at LME Seminar

LONDON, Oct 9 (Reuters) - Copper is overwhelmingly the top bet for base metals next year, attendees at a London Metal Exchange (LME) event said on Monday.

Copper got 53% of votes in an informal poll at the LME Seminar on which base metal is likely to have most upside in 2024, after a series of analysts presented their cases for each of the six base metals traded on the LME plus steel.

Tin same in second at 23%, with others ranging between 4-9%.

Analyst Max Layton of Citibank said he was moderately bearish for the near-term outlook for copper, but once macro-economic growth concerns faded, prices were likely to spike.

The LME copper price could jump to $12,000 to $15,000 a metric ton in 2025, he said from around $8,100 on Monday, fuelled by surging demand for the energy transition that was not likely to be met by mine output expansions.

Aluminium, which only got 5% of votes, has a bearish outlook due to large increases in production, especially of recycled material in China, said Jorge Vazquez of consultancy Harbor Aluminium.

“Supply is booming,” he said, adding that a further bearish factor is that the process of supply destocking has not finished.

Harbor expects 6.9 million metric tons of aluminium supply expansions next year and 7.2 million in 2025, of which 79% each year will be secondary, or recycled metal, Vazquez added.

Global primary aluminium production is expected to be around 70 million tonnes in 2023. (Reporting by Eric Onstad and Polina Devitt; Editing by Susan Fenton)